SBM ITB Lecturer Highlights the Importance of Fiscal Credibility in Maintaining Economic Stability
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Editor Muhammad Efriza Pandia
JAKARTA, itb.ac.id – Ir. Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, S.T., Pg.Dip., M.Sc., Ph.D., a lecturer from the Business Risk and Finance Research Group at the School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung (SBM ITB), emphasized that the appreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah should be accompanied by policies that maintain price stability and strengthen people's purchasing power. He shared these insights while serving as a guest expert on a Kompas TV economic program discussing Indonesia's latest economic developments.
According to Dzikri, the Rupiah's appreciation to around Rp17,700–Rp17,900 per US dollar is the result of a combination of both external and domestic factors. These include the weakening of the US dollar, the growing attractiveness of Rupiah-denominated assets, increased foreign capital inflows into Government Securities (SBN) and Bank Indonesia instruments, as well as effective policy communication by Bank Indonesia.
He explained that the government's evaluation of several priority programs, including the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program and the Village Cooperatives (Kopdes) program, has played a greater role in strengthening market confidence in Indonesia's fiscal management than in directly driving the Rupiah's appreciation.
"The evaluation demonstrates that the government's priority programs continue to emphasize good governance, effectiveness, and fiscal sustainability. This sends a positive signal to investors by reflecting the government's commitment to maintaining a healthy state budget while pursuing economic growth," he said.
During the discussion, Dzikri also addressed the recent adjustment in Pertamax fuel prices. He explained that the policy could be understood as an effort to reduce fiscal pressure when rising global oil prices and exchange rate movements increase fuel procurement costs.
However, he stressed that a market-based pricing mechanism must be implemented consistently.
"Policy credibility is demonstrated not only by raising prices when costs increase, but also by lowering prices when global oil prices decline and the Rupiah strengthens. A transparent pricing mechanism will help maintain public trust," he explained.
Furthermore, Dzikri noted that a stronger Rupiah has the potential to reduce imported inflation, particularly in the energy, food, and raw material sectors, where transactions are largely denominated in US dollars. Nevertheless, these benefits will only be felt by the public if lower import costs are effectively passed on to domestic prices.
"If the price adjustment mechanism functions properly, a stronger Rupiah will not only serve as a positive indicator for financial markets but will also help improve people's purchasing power," he said.
Regarding the evaluation of the MBG and Kopdes programs, Dzikri emphasized that the evaluation process should not be interpreted as an intention to discontinue the programs. In his view, both initiatives serve important strategic purposes, from improving public nutrition to strengthening village economies. Therefore, their implementation should continue to be supported by sound governance, measurable performance indicators, efficient budget management, and strong accountability.
Dzikri also argued that Bank Indonesia does not need to rush into lowering its benchmark interest rate. He noted that the current BI Rate of 5.50 percent has helped strengthen confidence in Rupiah-denominated assets.
"As inflationary and exchange rate pressures become more manageable, gradual monetary easing may be considered to support consumption, investment, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), the housing sector, and labor-intensive industries," he said.
He concluded by underscoring the importance of evidence-based economic analysis in supporting macroeconomic policymaking. According to him, the success of policy coordination should not be measured solely by stronger market confidence, but also by its ability to maintain price stability, protect people's purchasing power, create employment opportunities, and strengthen Indonesia's long-term economic resilience.
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